Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Recaps

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Harris scored a game-high 24 points as he led the Massachusetts Minutemen to a 59-56 win over the Charlotte 49ers in the first round of the 34th annual Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.

Harris finished the night shooting 5-of-13 from the field and 11-of-12 at the free-throw line for 11th-seeded UMass (12-19).

The sixth-seeded 49ers (19-12) were paced by An'Juan Wilderness who tallied 11 points, followed by Ian Andersen with 10 off the bench. Derrio Green and Dijuan Harris combined to make just 3-of-15 shots from the field and missed all nine chances beyond the arc in the setback.

The Minutemen shot a mere 31.3 percent from the field in the first half, yet the squad led by as many as seven points in the period and held a 31-29 advantage at the break.

In the second half UMass again had trouble finding the mark from the floor, converting a woeful 33.3 percent and 1-of-11 behind the three-point line, but with 13-of-16 shooting at the free-throw line the visitors were able to secure the three-point win.

The difference in the game came at the charity stripe where Charlotte, which made just 5-of-26 beyond the arc, was outscored 18-5.

With the victory the Minutemen move on to the quarterfinal round on Friday and will face off against the third-seeded Richmond Spiders in Atlantic City.

Final Score: St. Bonaventure 83, Duquesne 71

St. Bonaventure, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Matthews converted 6-of-8 behind the three-point line and finished with a game-high 28 points as he led St. Bonaventure to an 83-71 win over the Duquesne Dukes in the first round of the 34th annual Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.

Also scoring in double figures for the eighth-seeded Bonnies (15-15) were Andrew Nicholson and Jonathan Hall with 25 and 10 points, respectively, with each clearing seven rebounds as well.

The ninth-seeded Dukes (16-15) were paced by Damian Saunders who registered a double-double with 18 points and a game-high 10 rebounds in the losing cause. B.J. Monteiro contributed 13 points and five boards off the bench and Jason Duty accounted for 11 points.

Duquesne suffered just 1-of-12 shooting behind the three-point line in the first half, taking the squad down to 40.6 percent from the floor overall, en route to a 34-30 deficit at the break.

In the second half the Bonnies not only made 53.8 percent from the floor, but also 6-of-8 beyond the arc and 15-of-18 at the charity stripe, cruising to the 12-point home win.

St. Bonaventure won the game at the free-throw line where it outscored the Dukes by a margin of 24-8.

With the win the Bonnies now head to Atlantic City and the quarterfinals of the tourney where they will face off against top-seeded Temple on Friday afternoon.

Final Score: Dayton 70, George Washington 60

Dayton, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcus Johnson scored 16 points, leading four players in double figures, as the Dayton Flyers posted a 70-60 win over the George Washington Colonials in the first round of the 34th annual Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.

Also scoring in double figures for the seventh-seeded Flyers (20-11) were Rob Lowery and Chris Johnson with 11 points apiece and Paul Williams 10 points as he made 7-of-8 at the free-throw line.

The 10th-seeded Colonials (16-14) were paced by Damian Hollis who dropped in a game-high 19 points. The starting five for George Washington combined to make just 9-of-26 from the floor in the setback.

The Colonials ran out to a quick nine-point advantage in the first half, but the home team fought back, hit on 6-of-14 behind the three-point line in the period and registered a 37-33 lead at the break.

In the second half the Flyers pushed their lead as high as 13 points, securing the 10-point victory with 17-of-21 shooting at the free-throw line.

Dayton, which will now take on second-seeded Xavier in the quarterfinals on Friday evening in Atlantic City, outscored the visitors at the free-throw line by a 26-10 margin.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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