August turns ugly for Nationals

Baseball Betting Lines

08/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sooner or later the Washington Nationals would fall from grace after their hot start this month.

As Homer said to Bart during an old April Fool's episode of The Simpsons, "You couldn't fool your mother on the foolingest day of your life if you had an electrified fooling machine."

The same can be said for the Nationals in August after they opened the month with five straight wins. Then manager Manny Acta's ballclub began playing much like the NL East doormats they have always been, losing nine of the following 13 games, including a current four-game slide.

Most sports fans with a pulse could have predicted that the Nationals had no chance of making the playoffs back in April, and those bets will still stand strong when October rolls around. I also don't claim to be a genius with that assessment, but it gets pretty old watching this franchise falter in the summer heat year after year.

Washington just completed a six-game homestand against division rivals Philadelphia and New York, ending with a 1-5 record. It scored no more than four runs in each of those contests and fell to 31-34 at RFK Stadium this season.

Maybe a season-long 10-game road trip is what Acta's club needs to get back in the win column. The Nationals own an 8-10 road record since the beginning of July and will pay visits to Houston (four games), Colorado (three games) and Los Angeles (three games) with hopes of improving a 24-35 road mark.

NATS ADD PENA TO ROSTER

Nats general manager Jim Bowden liked what he saw from Wily Mo Pena while with the Cincinnati Reds and dealt for the outfielder last week. Pena and cash considerations were sent to Washington from Beantown for a player to be named.

Pena, who hit .218 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 73 games with Boston this year, made his Washington debut on Saturday at RFK Stadium against the New York Mets. Pena started in left field and went 1-for-4 with two runs scored in a 7-4 setback to the division-leading Mets. He then homered in Sunday's loss.

"He brings legitimate power," teammate Dmitri Young said of Pena. "He will complement our guys who will hit the gaps. It's just a matter of getting some playing time. "Nothing against [Ryan] Church, because Church has been doing the job all year, but ultimately Pena will make every player better."

JOHNSON WILL NOT PLAY IN '07

Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson will not play this season in order to recover from a broken right femur suffered in a collision with teammate Austin Kearns against the New York Mets on September 23 last season.

Johnson has been rehabilitating ever since and his return date was pushed back several times. Johnson also received two cortisone shots to kill the pain and, according to GM Jim Bowden, his hip has been giving him the most problems.

The slugger, who batted .290 with 23 homers and 77 RBI in 2006, was sent to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN this week and doctors discovered bursitis in the hip. It was then suggested Johnson undergo surgery to remove the rod and screw that had been inserted in the broken femur.

Johnson is expected to have the procedure done on Saturday in Washington. Doctors believe he will be ready for Spring Training next year.

WHO'S HOT

Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who owns 13 extra-base hits this month, batted .348 with five doubles and two RBI during the recent six-game homestand.

Zimmerman is hitting.333 with 16 RBI in 19 games since July 31. He owns a .310 batting average and 45 hits after the All-Star break.

WHO'S NOT

Washington catcher Brian Schneider has just a .222 batting average (4-for-20) over his last eight games.

Infielder Felipe Lopez has one hit in his past 18 at-bats after recording 21 hits over the previous 68 plate appearances.

ON DECK

The Nationals open a season-long 10-game road trip on Monday night with the first of four games against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.

They will then visit the Colorado Rockies for three games at Coors Field before opening a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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