McMurray feeling little pressure on making the Chase

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/30/2010 - Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With two races to go before the "Chase for the Sprint Cup" begins at New Hampshire, Daytona 500 champion and Brickyard 400 winner Jamie McMurray says he won't be disappointed if he doesn't qualify for the playoffs.

McMurray moved up to 13th in the point standings after finishing third last week at Bristol. He trails 12th-place Clint Bowyer by a distant 100 points, while Mark Martin is one marker behind McMurray in the 14th spot.

"It certainly is a better position to be in right now for us, because there only is one person we have to pass," McMurray said. "When you have three or four in between you, you have to hope all of them have something bad happen to all them.

"But [Bowyer] is running really well right now. I kind of put him in the same category as us. They are running really well, but they've had a lot of DNFs [Did Not Finish]. I think that team will perform fine, and we will just have to wait and see how it works out."

Despite winning the two most prestigious races of the season, it's been an inconsistent season for McMurray, who is in his first year as driver of the No.1 Chevrolet for Earnhardt Ganassi Racing.

McMurray didn't know who he would drive for in 2010 after his Roush Fenway Racing No.26 team folded tent at the end of the 2009 season. McMurray landed a ride with EGR in the No.1 car after Martin Truex Jr. moved over to Michael Waltrip Racing.

McMurray made an impressive debut with EGR by winning the season-opening Daytona 500, but after the series raced again in Daytona last month, McMurray sat 19th in points.

Since then, McMurray has scored four top-10 finishes, including his Indianapolis victory, in the last six races.

After the September 11 race at Richmond -- the 26th and final event in the Sprint Cup regular season -- the top-12 drivers in points will make up the field for the Chase -- the final 10 races that determine the champion.

So the pressure is on for several drivers in the next two races, particularly Martin, who finished second to champion and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson in the 2009 Chase, and Ryan Newman, who ended last season ninth in points. Newman is 118 points in back of Bowyer.

But the stress of making the Chase is not necessarily affecting McMurray as much as other drivers who are attempting to make the field.

While McMurray is content with winning more races this season, he's letting crew chief Kevin "Bono" Manion do the worrying about making the Chase.

"[Manion] certainly is worried about it," McMurray said. "I remember the stress that goes along with that, and I'm really fortunate this year that we were able to win those two big races, because if we don't make the Chase, it's not going to be devastating."

McMurray's chances of making the Chase are slim, but history shows that by no means is he out of the running.

In 2006, Kasey Kahne was 90 points behind the cutoff spot for the Chase with two races to go, but Kahne won at California and then finished third at Richmond to squeak into the playoffs by 16 points. The Chase field back then consisted of 10 drivers. NASCAR expanded it to 12 the following year.

Can McMurray better Kahne's feat from four years ago? That's going to greatly depend on how well Bowyer performs at Atlanta and Richmond.

"I love Atlanta and Richmond and run well there," Bowyer said. "With any luck at all, we'll be in this thing."

Bowyer certainly deserves to be in the Chase this year after his disappointing season in '09, but it would also make for a feel-good story if McMurray can rise up and qualify for the field.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

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